Wednesday
Oct142009

Tuesday
Oct132009

A + B = C?

Last week we met with a client who had this problem:  "Company A has 10 owners and owns 85% of company B with 15% share owned by 1 person/entity.  Company B owns 85% of company C with 15% share owned by one person/entity.  How do we structure our employee benefits program to satisfy all people and requirements by law?"  (see diagram)

While this problem seems complicated, there is really an easy solution.  No broker or agent can solve this problem.  They needed someone who was not tied to one company or selling only one product to help bring a customized solution to the table.

Tuesday
Sep012009

Think Positive or Think Practical?


I’m looking at a recent business week article and it says,

 

“The U.S. economy is in such bad shape that the loss of (just) a quarter-million jobs in July was greeted as good news.  Long-term unemployment and foreclosures continue to mount in the worst economic downturn since the 1930s.  Health care costs are out of control.  An aging population around the globe is driving government spending through the roof.  And scientists say we need an expensive crash program to fight global warming or we’ll incinerate ourselves.  It’s little wonder that despite some positive news lately, the daily Gallup Poll on U.S. economic conditions as of Aug.11 found that 53% of Americans think the U.S. economic outlook is getting worse … vs. a purely defensive posture – knees pulled to chest, hands on head – remember this:  Just as people become overly exuberant in good times, they tend to get too pessimistic in bad times.  While the economy remains deep in a hole, and could indeed get worse, the truth is that nobody really knows what will happen next.  Prudence demands that you prepare yourself for all possible outcomes, including some highly positive ones.”

 

Our thoughts are that it will continue to get worse.  It is easy to make the assumption that since people get “over exuberant in good times” that they also are “too pessimistic in bad times.”  It is simple, the majority of people and their outlook on life doesn’t change while in good or bad times.  The people who thought the economy would continue to soar during the up times are the same people who think “…the real estate market is already on the upswing (at least in my area) and I’ll be able to sell my house by next year for a profit.”  On the other hand, the people who warned against the bursting of the bubble in 2007 are the same people who are still saying it is getting worse.

 

If you have been following us at any length you probably know that our firm subscribes to the Black Swan philosophy.  Click here to request your free copy and read more about it.  It will explain a lot about what has happened with our economy and why it is not coming back any time soon.

 

 

Monday
Aug312009

Health Care Reform Insight

We recently put out a whitepaper speaking on some key insights into the current political debacle surrounding health care reform.  Go here to request your free copy. 

 

Here is a passage from the whitepaper:

When/if the Sen. Finance version is announced, do NOT get bogged in the little details in the legislation.  (The media & special interests will go nuts on the minutia as if each is a major issue.)  Instead, focus on a few big factors, such as if it proposes a public plan paying uncompetitive low prices.  If it does not (and all signs have been that it will not), and if whatever they propose (such as public co-ops) do not provide a probable path to a government sponsored take-over of the health coverage market, then Congress has a probably-unsolvable deadlock, and major Health Reform legislation will be finished for now.

So, while the Senate Finance Committee is the key factor in the first weeks of September, there is growing impatience (jealousy? resentment?) by other members of Congress who feel like bit actors in a sideshow.  Some may try to break away and push through their own versions.  However, anything less than a very balanced proposal will simply create greater internal political obstacles.

 

 
Monday
Aug242009

Where is the Evidence?

Here is an exerpt from our latest article, “Where is the evidence?” Written by one of our staff, she details her reading of Nassim Taleb’s philosophies on our recent economic slowdown.

“Taleb’s writings introduce ideas that challenge the traditions of risk management and talks about the extremes society faces because of these traditional thought processes. He talks about the propensity of people to believe in scientific evidence versus obvious flaws which is a risk level that is doomed for failure. He believes it is idiotic that we manage our lives by such a lack of evidence. He points out how all airplane passengers are subject to passing through checkpoints, except there is zero evidence that these passengers are carrying weapons. However, if there were no checkpoints at all, there is a very high probability that a plane will be destroyed thanks to some terrorist. Now it seems how clear it should have been that financial collapse was certain for the global economy without the necessary checkpoints.”

To read the entire article, click here to request it.