I’m looking at a recent business week article and it says,

“The U.S. economy is in such bad shape that the loss of (just) a quarter-million jobs in July was greeted as good news.  Long-term unemployment and foreclosures continue to mount in the worst economic downturn since the 1930s.  Health care costs are out of control.  An aging population around the globe is driving government spending through the roof.  And scientists say we need an expensive crash program to fight global warming or we’ll incinerate ourselves.  It’s little wonder that despite some positive news lately, the daily Gallup Poll on U.S. economic conditions as of Aug.11 found that 53% of Americans think the U.S. economic outlook is getting worse … vs. a purely defensive posture – knees pulled to chest, hands on head – remember this:  Just as people become overly exuberant in good times, they tend to get too pessimistic in bad times.  While the economy remains deep in a hole, and could indeed get worse, the truth is that nobody really knows what will happen next.  Prudence demands that you prepare yourself for all possible outcomes, including some highly positive ones.”

Our thoughts are that it will continue to get worse.  It is easy to make the assumption that since people get “over exuberant in good times” that they also are “too pessimistic in bad times.”  It is simple, the majority of people and their outlook on life doesn’t change while in good or bad times.  The people who thought the economy would continue to soar during the up times are the same people who think “…the real estate market is already on the upswing (at least in my area) and I’ll be able to sell my house by next year for a profit.”  On the other hand, the people who warned against the bursting of the bubble in 2007 are the same people who are still saying it is getting worse.

If you have been following us at any length you probably know that our firm subscribes to the Black Swan philosophy.  Click here to request your free copy and read more about it.  It will explain a lot about what has happened with our economy and why it is not coming back any time soon.